Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Preview and Odds
2010-11-15
Sportsbook.com Nuggets vs. Suns Betting Lines: pick ‘em, Total: 218.5
Denver redeemed itself at home last week giving the Lakers their first loss of the season, after a 31-point defeat in Indiana two days prior. Carmelo Anthony posted his third double-double on the season in just over 40 minutes of play against L.A., scoring 32 points and grabbing 13 boards. With three days of rest over the weekend, the Nuggets head to Phoenix, where they have lost 11 consecutive times, with their last win coming in Anthony’s rookie season.
Defense will be key against the fast-paced and high-scoring Suns, who rank second in the league in points per game (109.1) and three-point shooting (41.6%, tied with Detroit). The Nuggets should be able to keep up the pace with fresh legs. Denver is 3-2 ATS on the road this season, but its unsuccessful history in Phoenix will be difficult to end.
Meanwhile, the Suns topped .500 Sunday night after handing the Lakers their first home loss this season -– second loss in a row -– with a 121-116 win. Steve Nash posted his fourth consecutive double-double, and Jason Richardson dropped seven of the team’s 22 three-pointers for a game-high 35 points. Outside shooting will be crucial Monday night, especially with the uncertain playing status of seven-foot center Robin Lopez, who didn’t return in the second half in L.A. after a spraining his knee. Despite going 2-0 SU as the home favorite, Phoenix is 0-2 SU and ATS in back-to-back games -– a considerable factor to take into account against the well-rested Nuggets.
The Nuggets are still without big men Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin, who are both out indefinitely with knee injuries, but could this only be a minor factor with Lopez’s knee injury. In the last three seasons, three of four games have gone under the total, and this game looks likely to follow the trend due to injuries and lack of rest from consecutive games for Phoenix.
These NBA betting trends indicate that the Suns will cover the point spread tonight.
PHOENIX is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 111.4, OPPONENT 103.9 - (Rating = 1*).
Alvin Gentry is 39-18 ATS (68.4%, +19.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% as the coach of PHOENIX. The average score was PHOENIX 114.7, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 2*).
To bet on this game or to check out the NBA betting odds for all of tonight’s games, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
NBA: Critical Game 5 in Cleveland-Boston series2010-05-11While three of the four second round NBA playoff series concluded in sweeps, the remaining series has been intensely competitive, with the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers even after four games. Tonight’s Game 5 from Cleveland is critical, and while oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have the host Cavs as 7.5-point favorites, LeBron & Co. have some definite issues to address if they hope to take the lead in the series.
The spelling might be slightly different, but Rajon Rondo has been very much like Ronco’s famous “Veg-O-Matic”. Rondo has sliced and diced the Cleveland defense and cut up the Cavaliers guards like helpless tomatoes or onions. Even with an up-and-down Game 3 performance, he’s averaging 21.8 points, 13 assists and 8.3 rebounds per contest and is the biggest reason Boston and Cleveland is now best two of three.
NBA playoff basketball is about making adjustments from game to game. Cleveland was more aggressive from the start in Game 3, as LeBron James and his teammates bottled up Boston from the opening tap and free-wheeled around the TD Garden going wherever they wanted in winning 124-95 as one-point underdogs.
Coach Doc Rivers didn’t like his offense or defense in that contest and made two modifications for Sunday’s game. He wanted every defender to create more on-ball pressure, thus limiting Cleveland’s ability to drive or pass wherever they desired to go and got more hands up on shots and limited the Cavs to 40.3 percent shooting after draining 59.5 percent two days prior.
Though not publicly stated since series opener, Rivers evidently gave Rondo the green light to take the ball and go rim-running whether he had teammates or not. Rivers had said after Game 1 he wanted other Celtics players to run with Rondo in transition. They did for the most part in second contest in Cleveland, but went back to old ways in being drubbed in next tilt.
Rondo appeared to have free reign Sunday afternoon and carved up the Cavaliers defense for 29 points, 13 assists and a Bill Russell-like 18 rebounds. Boston won by 10 as 1.5-point home dogs and is 5-1 ATS after winning as a home underdog.
LeBron James has surveyed the situation and is tired of watching his guards get cleaved up by Rondo. “I think it starts with Rondo. He's kind of the engine that really gets them going," James said. "He does everything for them. His performance was unbelievable.
"Rondo was definitely the difference maker."
James has increasingly taken pride in his ability to stop opposing players and was spotted by more than one courtside observer in Boston letting coach Mike Brown know he wants to get into a defensive stance against Rondo.
"I would love to,'' James said after the game. “It's something we maybe should explore because Rondo is definitely dominating this series at the point guard position. For me, I don't have a problem taking Rondo or guarding Rondo throughout the course of the game. If the coaching staff or the guys want me to do it, I will."
This is not unprecedented for the Cavs as King James guarded Derrick Rose in last series and limited what the Bulls guard could do taking turns with teammates.
Cleveland is 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite and is a 7.5-point pick at Sportsbook.com with total of 193.5. This strategy might come out of necessity for coach Brown whose team is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Since the guards are not handling the lightning quick Boston guard and are once again ineffective as scorers, just like in Orlando series in last season’s playoffs, Brown might be forced to employ this method.
The green-clad C’s are 11-4-1 ATS in postseason underdog role and know the better defense they play, that leaves more chances for the former Kentucky guard to run free in the open court.
This TNT 8:00 Eastern matchup has alternated Over’s and Under’s in the first four meetings, however the OVER is still 6-2 in previous eight matchups.
StatFox Power Line – Cleveland by 6
NBA Playoff Betting Preview – Eastern Conference 2010-04-17The East looks to be about as exciting as another episode rerun of Law and Order. Everyone is expecting the chalk to play thru to Cleveland and Orlando rematch, with oddsmakers seeing the Cavaliers and Magic switching places. One fun aspect is how angry most of the Eastern Conference teams are. Cleveland’s mad because they feel they should have already won a title. Orlando’s peeved because most experts don’t believe they are good enough to win championship. Atlanta is fuming because of lack of respect and Boston is raging because they believe they are better than they’ve played. Milwaukee’s unhappy about losing Andrew Bogut and Miami’s piqued about talk of one man team. The Bulls are essentially “no comment” on head coach and VP being involved in heated confrontation and Charlotte’s coach Larry Brown is just mad about being Larry Brown. All lines courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
(1) Cleveland vs (8) Chicago
At present, there is no denying the Cleveland Cavaliers their due. Cleveland had the best record in the NBA at 61-21, which included tossing away the final four games of the regular season, resting the league’s best player LeBron James. If you discard the non-efforts in April against the other elite teams in the NBA, the Cavaliers were 9-2 and 8-3 ATS against all other clubs seeded one-thru-three. Without question, this is the deepest most complete squad James has had since taking up residence in Cleveland area. The Cavs are fourth in field goal percentage defense and third in field goals made and yes they still will bog down on offense occasionally, but have additional weapons like Antawn Jamison and J.J. Hickson to compliment other aspects. The Cavaliers are +160 favorites to win it all and should.
Chicago received a dubious prize for making the NBA Playoffs on the last day of the season, but you can’t compete and learn how to get better unless you make it this far and truly determine where you need to improve. The Bulls are really young and can play like a bunch of kids on the playground with the public doubting they can even win a game. Point guard Derrick Rose seems to work well with Kirk Hinrich and as long as the former Kansas product is making jump shots, the duo can give the Cavs problems in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, Chicago has to match physicality, but don’t overdo it, since the Cavaliers have more options. Luol Deng has to be big in this series. Da Bulls are 17-7 ATS in road games vs. teams making six or more three-point shot a contest in the second half of the season.
Though Cleveland gave away much of April, the last thing they want is extended series, nonetheless, you can bet coach Mike Anderson would prefer four challenging tilts to toughen up his team, with Cavs the winner each time. Anderson’s group is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds a game on the season.
Pick- Cleveland (-2800) in four over Chicago (+1600)
Postseason Outlook- This isn’t complicated, Cleveland is the best team in the NBA and completes their work to be NBA champions. The very next question is does LeBron stay? To Cleveland’s credit, the front office could hardly have done more to improve team.
(2) Orlando vs (7) Charlotte
The Magic backed up their trip to last year’s NBA Finals with a strong regular season and look to duplicate that feat while creating a better ending. Orlando presents matchup problems for most teams as traditional defensive-mentality is to play inside the three-point circle and help off the wings and clog the lane. The Magic launch a myriad (most in NBA history this season) of three-pointers which frees up Dwight Howard to operate by himself in the paint, with an offensive game that is modestly improved from the past. Orlando is a good, not great defensive team individually, but having Howard as the last line of defense is the great equalizer, which is why the Magic led the league in field goal percentage defense. Focal point for Orlando will be Vince Carter, since Hedu Turkoglu was so clutch in last year’s playoffs; can an aging Vin-sanity play at the same level or beyond?
Charlotte is in the playoffs for the first time in their second spin as NBA franchise, now headed by Michael Jordan’s group. On paper or computer screen this doesn’t appear to be much of matchup and it might not be, but the Bobcats have angry dudes who will give their all. Gerald Wallace is a proven All-Star and contributes in all facets of the game. Stephen Jackson is big time and loves the moment as Dallas will attest to two seasons ago when they lost to Golden State with Jackson being one of the key components why. With Larry Brown as coach, Charlotte will be prepared and his players don’t hate him, yet, which means more inspired play. The larger question is will Brown end up coaching the entire series or be working on resume at Ladders, since he was quoted as saying this is where he wants to finish coaching career. (Nod if you’ve heard that before five or more times). The Bobcats are 23-11 ATS against top-level teams with 70 percent or higher win percentage the last three years.
This isn’t a good match for Charlotte, having lost 10 of 11 to Orlando (5-6 ATS) and if they lose the first two games in Mickey’s town, will the fickle Bobcats fan even bother to sellout two games for their team? The Magic are magical 19-3 and 15-6-1 ATS since March 1.
Pick- Orlando (-1000) in five over Charlotte (+600)
Postseason Outlook- Orlando plays the respect card and eliminates Atlanta and pushes Cleveland to a Game 7, before falling in the East Finals.
(3) Atlanta vs (6) Milwaukee
Do you get the feeling the Hawks are turning into the Atlanta Braves of the 1980’s? The Braves had great players like Dale Murphy and Bob Horner but never really accomplished a great deal, not being able to fill the rest of the holes. The Hawks are two years removed from almost upsetting Boston, who would go on to win NBA title. They won 53 games (the most in 12 years) this season yet ask any NBA insider or interested sports bettor if Atlanta is an elite club and a pause will come before a hesitant answer. The Hawks function best on offense when they are like the hamburger chain In-N-Out, dumping the ball into Al Horford and Josh Smith (both with limited offensive maneuvers) and kicking it out to shooters like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. Expert the Hawks to want to fly up and down the court, ranked fourth in fast-break points at 16.2 per contest and they begin the series 30-13 ATS after playing two consecutive games as favorite this season.
It’s really a shame Milwaukee lost center Andrew Bogut, though he’s never been a factor against Atlanta, as a very strong case could be made he was the second best center in the Eastern Conference this season until unlucky fall. Though the injury limits aspects of what the Bucks can do, no reason for Milwaukee fans to be crying in their beer. John Salmons was the best pickup any team made before the trade deadline, bringing a scorer’s mentality and ability to get to basket; shooting over five three throws a game. Carlos Delfino and Jerry Stackhouse are excellent shooters when feet are gathered and Luke Ridnour adds a calming effect with his presence. Look for Milwaukee to play plenty of small-ball attempting to get open shots for quicker players or draw fouls for dead ball points.
At the All-Star break Milwaukee was 24-27, going nowhere, but caught fire finishing 22-9 (20-8-3 ATS) and were the only NBA teams with over fifty (51) spread wins this season. Head man Scott Skiles is the classic underdog coach, since that’s what he was as player and if Atlanta comes in over-confident against shortened Bucks bunch, this becomes arresting series.
Pick- Atlanta (-900) in six over Milwaukee (+550)
Postseason Outlook- It’s sad really, Atlanta may have peaked with this contingent already, as Joe Johnson is sure to chase the buck just like he did when he left Phoenix and Mike Bibby isn’t getting better. Hawks have no magical answers for Orlando.
(4) Boston vs (5) Miami
How the true sports bettor wins is giving up on preconceived notions when the obvious is presented and not just grabbing the latest fad when it comes around. The Boston Celtics have won exactly half of their last 54 games (18-34-2 ATS), after starting 23-5. By now everyone has heard all the excuses as to why, but the facts are this is an average, aging basketball team led by players that can no longer deliver consistently, with a coach whose rah-rah style is no longer as appealing. In sticking with facts, the Celtics are 24-17 at home (12-28-1 ATS) which is five defeats more than the previous two regular seasons combined. Boston has lost seven contests since Feb. 25 by 10 or more points and 10 total overall, which is precisely one more whipping they received in the prior two campaigns totaled together. This club would seem to have more in common with Mary J. Blige than Rhinna.
While Boston has been a loser in seven of last 10 contests, Miami has been hotter the Beyonce, being winners in 12 of last lucky 13 (8-4-1 ATS). The Heat-wave has been a two-pronged factor, a manageable schedule and great defense. Though a few groans have emitted from the Miami locker room about playing at faster pace, coach Erik Spoelstra looks down the bench and doesn’t see production in terms of minutes and points, thus has decided to limit possessions and hope Dwayne Wade can find a way to win. The defense has been suffocating, holding opposing clubs to 88.7 points in this stretch compared to 94.2 on the year.
Miami will be a trendy pick, a hot team facing a cold (you can’t spell cold without o l d) one. Heat backers will dismiss 0-3 record this season against Boston, since they lost by only five, six and seven points. Wade has been like his team’s nickname, heating the C’s for almost 34 points a game and over eight assists. However, Doc Rivers has implemented a plan, let Wade get his and not let anyone else beat us, which is the reason for no other Miami player scoring 20 points vs. Boston this season.
Pick- Boston (-200) in six over Miami (+165)
Postseason Outlook- The ride ends in Cleveland for the Celtics. The offseason could bring change if Doc Rivers leaves town. Ray Allen will only be older next year and would any NBA franchise want huge dollars tied up in Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace for two more years?
NBA: NBA All-star Betting: Texas Style2010-02-12For most bettors, the NBA All-Star Game and the entire weekend for that matter, offers a winter sabbatical from the grind of daily betting. Still, there is a line, total, and numerous props always available for this game, and many players will get involved “just for fun”. This piece is dedicated to that group, as it is certainly more fun to win your all-star wagers. Read on as I, StatFox Steve, go over a little background about the NBA’s All-Star Game, and reveal this week’s prediction, which utilizes the same strategy I have employed in winning the last three all-star games. Get the latest price and other betting options for the game on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.
The best players of the NBA will be on hand for what should be the most star-studded event in the history of the league’s all-star festivities. The 2010 NBA All-star game, to be played at brand new Cowboys’ Stadium in Arlington, TX, figures to be played in front of the largest crowd ever to watch a basketball game. Unfortunately, the game took a hit when one of the biggest of the stars, Kobe Bryant, who has been alternating MVP’s of the last four showcases with Lebron James, had to back out due to injury.
Last season, the West defeated the East 146-119 with Bryant of the Lakers stealing the MVP honors back away from James. The two of them have formed their own personal head-to-head dual in recent years, and the MVP honor for ’10 figures to come down to James and whether or not his team wins the game. I’m here to analyze that prospect as well as to dig up some key handicapping information from past all-star games in order to help you if you choose to partake in this year’s proceedings. The West opened as a 4-1/2 point favorite with a total of 262, but since the injury news, the line is down to West -3, total: 260.
James is the go-to guy for the East, and the rest of the starting five was going to be identical to a year ago, until Allen Iverson backed out. He was replaced by Rajon Rondo and is joined by Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic, Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics, and Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat. On the bench for the East are all-stars Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics, David Lee of the Knicks, Al Horford and Joe Johnson of the Hawks, Derrick Rose of the Bulls, Gerald Wallace of Charlotte, and Chris Bosh of the Raptors. Bosh was a starter in the 2007 game.
If you read this week’s Platinum Sheet, you would have seen that Iverson had a dragging effect on the East’s PVR total. However, since he left, the East figures to be in much better position.
The West All-Stars starters include Steve Nash of the Phoenix Suns, Dirk Nowitzki of the hometown Mavericks, Amare Stoudemire of the Phoenix Suns, Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs and Carmelo Anthony of the Denver Nuggets. The bench of the West will include Zach Randolph of Memphis, Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets, Chris Kaman of the LA Clippers, Derron Williams of the Utah Jazz, Jason Kidd of the Mavericks, Pau Gasol of the Los Angeles Lakers and Kevin Durant of Oklahoma City.
Coaching the East will be the Orlando Magic’s Stan Van Gundy, and the coach of the West will be the Denver Nuggets’ George Karl. The West lost a lot with the injuries to the Hornets’ Chris Paul, Bryant, and the Blazers’ Brandon Roy, but still seems to boast a significant size advantage once again, with seven players boasting power forward size or greater. If anything, the speed could be the advantage of the East. Being in Dallas, the “home court advantage” will again be favoring the West for the 7th straight season. Officially, the East hosted the ’07 game in Vegas, but the regional edge was to the West.
Last year’s championship run by the Lakers and the current standings in the league have many experts believing that any ground the East had gained in recent years has been lost. While very top heavy with its four elite teams (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta), the rest of East owned a winning percentage below the TOP 10 in the West as of presstime. In terms of head-to-head records in non-conference play this season, through action on Thursday, the West was 8-games above .500 against the East. Compare that to last season, when the East was +20 games at that same point, and two years ago when the West was +43.
Considering the West has been favored in every NBA All-Star Game since ’01, it’s not a surprise that they are the chalk again for this game. Here are a few other trends that have formed in recent years in the NBA mid-season extravaganza:
The straight up winner has taken all but one of the last nine games ATS.
The Eastern Conference in on an all-star game run of 4-2 ATS, all as the underdog.
OVER the total has converted in three straight games and six of the L8.
Shaquille O’Neal, the ’04 MVP, is the only one of the L9 MVP’s not in the ’10 game.
So, who wins this year’s game? Who should we bet on? Most often, it comes down to these questions: 1) Which roster is better? And 2) Which team will play with more cohesiveness? While it is impossible for anyone to know enough about #2 other than pure speculation, it IS possible to evaluate the first question. This can be done both from perception and quantitatively.
I have used a unique formula to determine which roster was more talented in each of the last three games. It led me to predict a 133-123 win for the West a year ago. I’ll do the same this year.
The formula involves taking into account the popular Hollinger Ratings on ESPN.com used for evaluating Player Efficiency (PER). I’ve estimated the minutes the starters and reserves will play based upon recent games and have come up with a theoretical TOTAL TEAM EFFICIENCY RATING which I use to justify a pointspread play for Sunday’s game. Take a look.
Expected East Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Rajon Rondo (Boston) - (20, 19.92, 398.4)
* Dwyane Wade (Miami) - (26, 27.59, 717.34)
* Kevin Garnett (Boston) - (19, 19.77, 375.63)
* LeBron James (Cleveland) - (28, 31.27, 875.56)
* Dwight Howard (Orlando) - (26, 23.1, 600.6)
East Reserves
David Lee (New York) - (16, 19.92, 318.72)
Derrick Rose (Chicago) - (17, 17.46, 296.82)
Chris Bosh (Toronto) - (20, 26.13, 522.6)
Al Horford (Atlanta) - (16, 18.84, 301.44)
Gerald Wallace (Charlotte) - (16, 19.36, 309.76)
Joe Johnson (Atlanta) - (18, 20.14, 362.52)
Paul Pierce (Boston) - (18, 18.77, 337.86)
Roster Total: 5417.25
Expected West Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas) - (24, 23.11, 554.64)
* Steve Nash (Phoenix) - (21, 23.2, 487.2)
* Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix) - (24, 20.09, 482.16)
* Tim Duncan (San Antonio) - (21, 27.33, 573.93)
* Carmelo Anthony (Denver) - (26, 24.62, 640.12)
West Reserves
Zach Randolph (Memphis) - (16, 22.13, 354.08)
Pao Gasol (LA Lakers) - (17, 22.34, 379.78)
Jason Kidd (Dallas) - (15, 16.95, 254.25)
Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City) - (24, 25.33, 607.92)
Chris Kaman (LA Clippers) - (16, 17.3, 276.8)
Derron Williams (Utah) - (19, 20.63, 391.97)
Chauncey Billups (Denver) - (17, 21.42, 364.14)
Roster Total: 5366.99
According to the results, assuming the minutes played breakdown is somewhat near accurate (it was VERY close a year ago), the revised East roster is about 0.9% better in terms of cumulative player efficiency ratings. That’s a good sign for an underdog in an all-star contest, however is nowhere close to as big as last season, when the West was +4.2%.
I’d have to say that after all of the shuffling of rosters due to injury, the East shows the edge on the pointspread. I will make a bold call for the upset and not-so-bold call that James will be the MVP, playing extensive minutes and putting on a show in front of the record crowd. I also think the changes will result in a slower paced, under game. Prediction: East 128, West 124.
NBA: Big Thursday Night NBA Matchup
2009-12-04
The San Antonio Spurs took advantage of an easy portion in their schedule to get on track after a poor start to the season. Things are about to get much tougher. The Spurs host the Boston Celtics on Thursday as both teams go for their sixth straight win. San Antonio is a shaky 1.5-point favorite, shaky in that nearly 80% of bettors like the Celtics against the spread, according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page.
San Antonio (9-6, 8-7 ATS) lost six of its first 10 games to post the worst start in the Tim Duncan era. An ankle injury caused Duncan to miss two victories during that stretch, but he’s been a key factor during the current five-game winning streak, averaging 20.6 points and 9.8 rebounds. He’s led the team in scoring in three of the wins, including a 97-89 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday.
The Spurs held the 76ers to 39.3 percent shooting and gave up fewer than 90 points for the third time during the win streak. They are yielding an average of 91.8 points in the last five games - seven fewer than the first 10 games.
“We really shouldn’t care that much about winning five in a row,” said Manu Ginobili, who returned Sunday after missing five games with a strained groin and finished with eight points and three turnovers in 17 minutes.
“It’s always good. It helps your confidence, and of course your standings, but we still believe we’ve got a long way to go.” Ginobilli and the Spurs are 22-11 ATS after a non-conference game over the last two seasons.
Ginobili and the Spurs may be hesitant to make too much of the winning streak given the quality of the opponents. Three of the teams they defeated have losing records and the other two—Houston and Milwaukee—have spent much of the season hovering around .500.
San Antonio’s upcoming schedule should provide a bigger test, with home games against division leaders Boston and Denver before Monday’s visit to Utah, which has won six of seven. However, not all the Spurs see the upcoming game against the Celtics (14-4, 8-10 ATS) as a measuring stick.
“Right now, neither team is going to be as sharp as they’d like,” Richard Jefferson said. “I think both teams are going to be a lot better later in the season. … We’re standing firm with (coach Greg Popovich) that we’re learning, we’re all trying to get better from day to day.”
The Spurs haven’t won six in a row since Dec. 4-14, 2008 and are 3-12 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins over the last two years.
Boston brings its own five-game winning streak into San Antonio as it continues a four-game road trip. The Celtics beat Charlotte 108-90 on Tuesday behind Ray Allen’s best performance of the season. Allen came in averaging 15.2 points but finished with 27—he scored more than 20 in only one other game all season—and hit five of his six 3-point attempts. He had been 7 for 27 from beyond the arc in the previous six games.
Allen regaining his shooting touch adds another weapon to an offense averaging 107.2 points and shooting 51.6 percent over the winning streak. Paul Pierce averaged 26.0 points in the first three games of it, although he’s been held to a combined 23 in the last two. He was 3 of 8 from the field Tuesday to finish with a season-low eight points. Boston arrives in San Antonio and is 8-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher.
Sportsbook.com has the Spurs as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 186.5. Coach Popovich’s club is only 8-20 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of .700 or better the last three seasons, however is 11-2 ATS if they managed to score more than 100 points in previous outing. Since 2007, Boston is 28-13 ATS as an underdog.
San Antonio is 9-3 and 6-5-1 ATS in last dozen Celtics’ visits, however they have failed to win or cover last three at AT&T Center.
This is the Thursday night NBA opener on TNT, with the Spurs 18-6 UNDER in home games when playing four or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons and Boston is 13-3 UNDER in non-conference road games since last year. The action begins at 8 Eastern.
The StatFox Power Line shows San Antonio by 2
NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 12/12-12/14
2008-12-12
Twenty-one of the NBA’s 25 games on tap for this weekend will be played on Friday & Saturday night, and among the highlights games that will be played are a pair of back-to-back games for the red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers, first hosting Philadelphia Friday, then at Atlanta on Saturday. Every one of the league’s 30 teams will be in action over the next two nights. Be sure to stay up on the latest key info for every game this weekend by visiting the NBA Game Matchups pages. Here’s a look at some of what’s on tap, along with some picks and the Top StatFox Weekend Power Trends for you to consider.
On Friday night, there are 11 games, two of which will be featured by ESPN in it’s weekly doubleheader. In the first one, contenders from each conference will go head-to-head when New Orleans visits Boston. The Celtics have climbed to 21-2 on the season and are carrying a 13-game winning streak into the contest. They are on a nice spread-covering run as well, having gone 9-3 ATS in their L12. However, the Hornets are also playing well, going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their L8 as they embark on a 3-game road trip. In the late ESPN game, Houston visits Golden State. The Rockets are percentage points behind New Orleans for the Southwest Division lead going into the weekend, but face back-to-back road contests in California. Golden State has won two straight games after losing its prior nine. Also on Friday night, don’t forget about the Cavaliers, as they take a 10-game SU & ATS winning streak into their contest with the 76ers.
The Saturday night slate features only two of 10 games with winning teams playing one another, so there could be a number of large pointspreads to deal with. In the two aforemention contests, Atlanta hosts Cleveland, and Utah welcomes Orlando to town. Here is one game to consider for your betting card on Saturday night:
(503) DETROIT at (504) CHARLOTTE - Detroit has been a mystery early this season, winning games when not given any chance while losing others in embarrassing fashion. Consistency is not something that new head coach Michael Curry is getting on a night-to-night basis. However, when Detroit is playing well, it plays VERY well and makes for a solid bet. In fact, all of the Pistons 11 wins this season were by 5-points or more, meaning if they are giving around 4-points here in Charlotte, a win should net them the accompanying cover. On the road they are 6-3 SU & ATS, including an easy 100-83 win here in Charlotte in November. If you recall, December was the month Detroit went on its huge run last year. I wouldn’t put that out of the question as they get more and more used to having Iverson in the lineup. Play: Detroit minus the points.
The Sunday action features four games with the best one tipping off before the NFL even gets started, with the Hornets visiting Toronto. Here’s a look at how I see that game going:
(701) NEW ORLEANS at (702) TORONTO - To tell if a team is really ready for contending, you should look at that club’s records against other good clubs. Toronto fails the test: TORONTO is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 96.7, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 1*). Despite evidence to the contrary early in the season, the Raptors are proving they may have taken a step back by trading for Jermaine O’Neal in the offseason. Much of their success last year came because of the tempo created by T.J. Ford and his ability to get the ball to scorers. That element is missing now. However, it does exist on the other bench, New Orleans, in PG Chris Paul. The Hornets are starting to get it going again and are on a run of 41-22 ATS vs. the East. Play: New Orleans minus the points.
Now, here are some of the Top StatFox Power Trends that will be in play this weekend:
Friday, 12/12/2008
(709) SAN ANTONIO vs. (710) MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) at home revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 86.8, OPPONENT 101.6 - (Rating = 4*)
(711) NEW ORLEANS vs. (712) BOSTON
BOSTON is 30-10 ATS (+19 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 98.5, OPPONENT 90.9 - (Rating = 3*)
(713) INDIANA vs. (714) DETROIT
DETROIT is 42-20 ATS (+20 Units) vs. teams who make 6 or more 3PT's/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 96.2, OPPONENT 89.8 - (Rating = 2*)
(717) LA CLIPPERS vs. (718) PORTLAND
LA CLIPPERS are 6-20 ATS (-16 Units) vs. good rebounding teams (outrebounding foes by 3+ RPG) since '05. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 89.8, OPPONENT 97.5 - (Rating = 2*)
(719) SACRAMENTO vs. (720) LA LAKERS
SACRAMENTO is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) revenging a road loss of 10 points or more over L2 seasons. The average score was SACRAMENTO 105.2, OPPONENT 106.5 - (Rating = 2*)
Saturday, 12/13/2008
(519) HOUSTON vs. (520) LA CLIPPERS
Rick Adelman is 38-15 ATS (+21.5 Units) vs. poor pressure defensive teams (forcing <=14 TOs/g) as coach of HOUSTON. The average score was Adelman 95.7, OPPONENT 87.5 - (Rating = 3*)
(519) HOUSTON vs. (520) LA CLIPPERS
Mike Dunleavy is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) as a home underdog as the coach of LA CLIPPERS. The average score was Dunleavy 92.8, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 2*)
(507) NEW JERSEY vs. (508) CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3PTs/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 94.7, OPPONENT 103.4 - (Rating = 2*)
(517) NEW YORK vs. (518) SACRAMENTO
NEW YORK is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) in road games vs. poor 3PT shooting teams (<=33%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 103.7, OPPONENT 105 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 12/14/2008
(705) OKLAHOMA CITY vs. (706) SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) at home against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 101, OPPONENT 88.5 - (Rating = 3*)
(707) MINNESOTA vs. (708) LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) vs. up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the L2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 114.6, OPPONENT 103.8 - (Rating = 2*)